My research of NIKE’s reported earnings and press release for Fiscal 2024 resulted in a significant discovery.  

NIKE will be the poster child for the secular bear market that is now underway. My target for NIKE’s peak to trough decline is 80 percent. S&P 500 could potentially decline by the same percentage.  

NIKE went to the top of my conduct-research-on list of companies due its share price declining by 21 percent and the headlines below occurring on June 28, 2024. It was the date that NIKE announced its financial results for its fiscal year ended May 31, 2024.  

Headlines below are for NIKE articles published on Yahoo Finance:

  • “Nike Valuation Plummets by $27Bn”
  • “Nike’s Earnings Reveal That Its Challenges Are Deeper Than Expected: Analysts Say It Could Get Worse”
  • “What Nike’s Slashed Full-Year Guidance Signals About Consumers” 

Depicted below are share prices and operating margins for NIKE from 2019 to 2024.  

Share price and operating margin (bar chart) both peaked in 2021.  The price of a NIKE share has since declined by 56 percent.  Operating margins for 2023 and 2024 were below 2019. 

My suspicion is that there are a significant number of public companies in the U.S. and the world which are vulnerable.  Many are, or will be soon be, experiencing consistently declining operating margins.  

For this reason, my projection is for the S&P 500 to track the price action of NIKE’s shares.  Based on the statistics for the prior secular bears in the table below, the projected peak to trough decline for the S&P 500 will range from 61 to 85 percent.

I highly recommend that you view the recording of my 06/28/24 weekly Zoom session. 

The discovery for NIKE, details about secular bear markets and my recommended defensive growth strategy, etc., were covered in the session.  

The video “Exit Blue Chips during secular Bears” is also a must view.    
I am currently in the process of:

  • Producing a research report about the NIKE discovery and its applicability to the global stock market and economy.
  • Identifying those blue chips which are most vulnerable

Finally, attending my complimentary 11:30 AM Saturday morning ZOOM sessions is recommended. In addition to the economic and market data that is covered each week, the companies identified which are most vulnerable will be covered.

Click below to reserve your seat for Saturday’s “Markowski On The Markets” session. Registrants also have access to the recordings of the sessions.

Michael Markowski, Director of Research for Developer of Defensive Growth Strategy. Entered markets with Merrill Lynch in 1977. Named “Top 50 Investor” by Fortune Magazine. Formerly, underwriter of venture stage IPOs, including one acquired by United Health Care for 1700% gain. Since 2002 has conducted empirical research to develop algorithms which predict the negative and positive extremes for the market and stocks. Has verifiable track records for predicting (1) bankruptcies of blue chips, (2) market crashes and (3) stocks multiplying by 10X. In a 2007 Equities Magazine article predicted the epic collapses for Lehman, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch. Most recent algorithm developed from research of UBER and AirBnB has enabled identification of startups having 100X upside potential within 7 to 10 years.