Consumer sentiment was once a reliable predictor of election outcomes. Not anymore.
The way Americans feel about the economy is now largely determined by party affiliation. During Donald Trump’s administration, consumer sentiment plunged among Democrats and surged among Republicans. When Joe Biden was elected, opinions reversed virtually overnight, despite little empirical change in the economy. This partisan split far exceeds differences by income, age and education, and it persists despite historic lows in unemployment and easing inflation.
Democrats and Republicans largely agree: The economy is America’s main policy concern.
And while consumer sentiment used to be a good predictor of who’d win the White House—incumbent party or not—that’s no longer true.
Until the late 1990s “there were consensus opinions about the economy, and there were data points that were trusted,” says Lincoln Mitchell, a political scientist at Columbia University. Now “people are going to believe what they want.”
Written by: Dorothy Gambrell and Laura Bliss @Bloomberg
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