What if China Manufactures a Sugar High?

While the slump in China’s property sector has been steep, Chinese policymakers have responded to the falloff in property activity with policies designed to spur activity in the manufacturing sector. The apparent hope is that a pivot toward production-intensive growth...

Bill Gross Laments ‘Excessive Exuberance’ as Stocks Surge

Pimco co-founder notes stocks unaffected by higher real yields Bonds are unattractive because there’s ‘too much supply’ Bill Gross warned that investors are in for a bumpy ride as “excessive exuberance” sweeps financial markets. The S&P 500 Index surged above...

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2024

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our...